Lotus Geek :: Need you to settle a bet for me: which movie do you think will be bigger this season/year?

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I was talking with one of my best friends today - Andrew, whom many of you already know - and we got into a friendly debate about movies. Two upcoming movies, actually:

James Cameron's Avatar (not to be confused with the animated series of the same name, which incidentally has a live-action movie of its own coming out soon)
Twilight: New Moon

Our friendly argument centered on which movie would be larger, overall - in both revenues and in current pop culture and zeitgeist. We also broke down the culture at large into two groups:

Geeks - people like you and me; people who, as you know, think differently, and who key in on (sometimes wildly) different things as popular and "hype-worthy"
Society-at-Large - this is basically "everyone else" - the overall society, the people who make movies and other things wildly popular trends (read: fads)

Our Positions
Given these two movies and these two groups, we debated which movie would be bigger both with Society-at-Large ("Society") and with the Geeks (well, "Geeks"). I say that Twilight: New Moon is such a force right now that it will loom over all other movies, for both the Geeks and Society. The Twilight Saga has become a monster series; not quite Harry Potter levels, but actually pretty close. The first movie was wildly popular, and while the books were predominately popular with girls, the movie actually was successful at pulling in mainstream moviegoers as well. And in talking with friends and aquaintences, it appears that many, many people have subsequently read the series and are also excited about the upcoming movies. I think this explains why the hype for Twilight: New Moon is so much larger than it was for Twilight, and I expect it to be a juggernaut.

Andrew, on the other hand, contends that Avatar is going to be a tour de force that completely consumes the Geek subculture. And while he thinks it will be big with Society as well, he concedes that Twilight: New Moon may have an edge. Now, I'm not putting words into Andrew's mouth - he knows I'm posting this, and as soon as he sees it he'll either respond here or on his own blog to explain his position in this disagreement.

Your Charge
Now that you know our positions, I'd like you, gentle reader, to give me your opinion as well. What do you think - will Twilight: New Moon be the juggernaut I predict, or will James Cameron hit another one out of the park (think: Titanic, Terminator, to name a few) and turn Avatar into another movie monstrosity?

What? You're not familiar with either one, or both, of these movies? Fear not, gentle reader - I've got your back! Here are some of the trailers for your perusal, so that you can be an informed opinion poster concerning this discussion...

UDATE: I moved the embedded movie previews to the second page so that the front page will load faster.

Avatar

Twilight: New Moon

Your Turn
OK, now it's your turn! Let us know what you think - will Avatar rule the day, or will it be "eclipsed" by Twilight: New Moon? And will it be different for the Geeks and Society-at-Large? Let us know what you think, and why!

Rock

Comments

1 - Why do you think geeks would be interested in Twilight? It is rubbish. Put a vampire in the sun and they sparkle like a christmas tree instead of either bursting into flame or turning to dust.... give me break.
Now Avatar on the other hand looks really good.

Posted by mort At 08:34:18 PM On 11/17/2009 | - Website - |

2 - OK, I'll count Mort's post as a vote for Andrew and Avatar Emoticon

Posted by Rock At 08:38:33 PM On 11/17/2009 | - Website - |

3 - yeah i gotta side with andrew on this.

New Moon: about basically nothing outside of adolescent turbulence, compounded with cheesy plot devices (the "vol-tar-ie"? seriously? sounds like the name of my grandfather's old car) and typical vampire powers with a few twists. not something i am personally interested in. it's the kind of movie i'd watch if someone handed me a free dvd to borrow, but wouldn't pay for. or i might buy a used version for really cheap, you know less than five bucks or something like that.

Avatar: i'll see this in the theater and i'll own the dvd too. no question. it doesn't look terribly deep but is the kind of escapism i like, it's very sci fi, and it hits on a political theme that i think a lot of ppl are starting to slowly wake up to. an indigenous population with something valuable in the ground vs. the industrial war machine, combined with a view toward the beauty of an indigenous culture that has much more going for it than so called civilized people are capable of seeing. this is a serious theme that needs to be taken seriously. i can't remember a big budget hollywood movie tackling this particular theme in quite the same way.

i DO think there will be a lot of people who are geeky who will like New Moon. i'll stick my neck out and make a generalization that they'd be more likely to be arty geeks than techie geeks. i think the techies will be more interested in Avatar.

as far as overall box office receipts goes, New Moon definitely has an edge there much like the Harry Potter movies do.

Posted by John Vaughan At 10:01:54 PM On 11/17/2009 | - Website - |

4 - While I'm personally rooting for Avatar, I think New Moon will make more. A lot of people (normal ones, not us geeks) will be confused by the plot, even though it's pretty derivative. Let's face it, "weak person who sides with an underdog against his own people" has been done to death. (Not that I'm knocking it, it's an archetypal story for a reason.)

However, do not underestimate the power of teenage girls in large numbers. James Cameron has benefited from this personally (Titanic, anyone?), so it shouldn't come as a surprise to him when Avatar gets plowed into the snow by New Moon.

I read the Twilight books at my wife's request: I couldn't say much as she's read book after book of mine, but I had never read one of hers. It wasn't up there with my favorites, like Dune, Starship Troopers, or George R. R. Martin's A Game of Thrones. (When will he finish the damn fifth book, anyway?) But it was an enjoyable read, if a bit fluffy.

It's not even gonna be a contest.

Posted by Adam Slagle At 11:02:51 PM On 11/17/2009 | - Website - |

5 - In my opinion...

New Moon is a love story that will be viewed by girls AND their mothers (who both want to be bitten to death by the hunky young Vampires). These women will drag along their boyfriends, husbands, friends and siblings, which will further boost attendance, and single guys will see the movie because that's where to go to pick up girls.

Avatar will also be a huge success, but not to the same extent as New Moon, because it's a great story and has enough special effects to wow the crowds, but depending on it's rating will probably be ignored by the mothers and younger kids. Also for the most part, older women don't watch Science Fiction movies.

So my guess is that New Moon should gross more revenue, but Avatar should take out more awards.

Personally, I will be seeing Avatar.

Posted by Ian Randall At 12:49:25 AM On 11/18/2009 | - Website - |

6 - New Moon has the bigger demographic and quite frankly, I was very underwhelmed by the Avatar trailers. Hope I'm wrong, but (as another commenter mentioned) it's a rehash of a done to death storyline coupled with stereotypical characters and idiotic dialog. How's that for a rash assessment from a two minute trailer?

Posted by David Bockes At 08:15:36 AM On 11/18/2009 | - Website - |

7 - Avatar is actually being under-marketed. (Blame the studio.) And, a *lot* of people are confusing it with the animated series.

It's going to be Twilight: New Moon by a landslide. Which is unfortunate.

Posted by Brian Miller At 08:57:10 AM On 11/18/2009 | - Website - |

8 - ROCKY -- unless we're talking about the teenage girl demographic -- I'm TOTALLY kicking your ass here. I do agree that New Moon will box office very well. Teen girls have tons of money, and where they go, teen boys follow. Other than that, however, Avatar is the winner in our little discussion.

Posted by Andrew Pollack At 09:36:41 AM On 11/18/2009 | - Website - |

9 - I think Twilight: New Moon will have more viewers than Avatar. I think the series is almost as popular as Harry Potter, just like Rocky has said. I think the target market for New Moon is larger than Avatar and is more likely to go out and actually see the movie then the target market for Avatar.

Posted by Betsy Thiede At 09:37:13 AM On 11/18/2009 | - Website - |

10 - @8 (Firefighter Geek) - Ou contrare, my hunky (or is the chunky?) firefighting geek friend - if you look at the responses objectively, it is I who is kicking YOUR ass. Here are the standings thus far:

Andrew - 2 votes (mort, jonvon)

Rock - 5 VOTES (Slagle, Ian, Bockes, Miller, Betsy)

So, I think you better rethink who will see what - even though I will probably see (and like) Avatar more personally, if you look at it objectively Twilight: New Moon is going to be a monster (and most likely break many box office records).

Rock

Posted by Rock At 09:44:59 AM On 11/18/2009 | - Website - |

11 - I personally hope Avatar will do better at the theater but I doubt it will. Avatar will draw a larger crowd of people who actually want to see the movie.

My wife will drag me out to see the new Twilight movie on opening night (already have tickets Emoticon

) just like she did for the first one. She tells me the second book was a lot better compared to the first and I certainly hope that's the case for the movie because I thought the first one was pretty terrible.

It will be interesting to see if there's only 20-30 guys there to see it when we go, which was the case for the first movie. Emoticon

Posted by David Jones At 10:00:40 AM On 11/18/2009 | - Website - |

12 -
The way I read it, lots of people think New Moon will make more money, and that they'll get "dragged to it" but that Avatar will hold the true geek attention. Isn't that the point?

Posted by Andrew Pollack At 10:35:09 AM On 11/18/2009 | - Website - |

13 - This is cracking me up that a bunch of guys are commenting on what movies women will go see.

I read the Twilight books and enjoyed them and have ZERO desire to go see the movies. I heard (even from fans of Twilight) that the first movie was awful and people aren't holding out a lot of hope for the next one.

I would go see Avatar WAY before I would see New Moon. But, then, I am not a normal "chick" in that I never watched Sex and The City and when my so-called friends made me watch the movie, I almost jumped out the window to avoid watching it.

Posted by Kathy Brown At 01:52:56 PM On 11/18/2009 | - Website - |

14 - I am voting for New moon here. I have to.... The company that produced and distributes the movie is one of the few Lotus Notes shops in the Entertainment Industry and one of my clients! So if you all go out and watch it I might be able to get an increase in my hourly rate and then buy you all a beer a Lotusphere Emoticon

Posted by Peter Presnell At 01:56:04 PM On 11/18/2009 | - Website - |

15 - Not likely to see either, but I have to presume the teen market is huge next to the geek market based on my little universe here in Boca.

But if I had a choice, and I prefer Directors sometimes, Cameron wins on that, but Vampires are cool, but technical geek vampires would rule.

Posted by Keith Brooks At 01:56:08 PM On 11/18/2009 | - Website - |

16 - I think New Moon will rule the box office. The target demographics (i.e. teenage girls and their mothers) will drag their boyfriends and husbands to the movie, as several already said here.
But if we isolate the geek population, I think more geeks will go watch Avatar. It will be in 3D, computer animated, using new technology, and be a James Cameron movie. I think he can be forgiven Titanic by now...
I plan to see Avatar (in 3D), but I have no interest to watch New Moon. I did not watch Twilight, and I have not read the books.
However, I admit that I did enjoy all the Harry Potter books and I watched the movies based on them as well, and I will see the two last ones when they come out.

Posted by Karl-Henry Martinsson At 02:30:22 PM On 11/18/2009 | - Website - |

17 - New Moon by a mile.

Avatar is going to tank -could have been cool but the producers / directors decided to get way too preachy. People go to movies to be entertained, not to be told how evil their culture is.

Besides, who really gives a crap about Smurfs anyway?

Posted by Devin Olson At 02:51:05 PM On 11/18/2009 | - Website - |

18 - rock and andrew both agree that New Moon will make more money. from where i am sitting, this is not a part of the question. for more clarification on this point see andrew's blog post:

{ Link }

andrew says: "I agree that New Moon will make more money"

the only question left is: which movie will be bigger with the geek crowd?

i think the votes are clearly in favor of andrew's position, looked at objectively Emoticon

which rock is unable to do since he has skin in the game. Emoticon

let's look at the data shall we?

adam slagle: "While I'm personally rooting for Avatar, I think New Moon will make more."

yes, everyone is agreed, New Moon will make more, no one is debating that, right? Adam is personally for Avatar. Adam is a geek (otherwise he wouldn't be posting to this discussion), therefore, Adam votes for Avatar.

Ian Randall: "So my guess is that New Moon should gross more revenue, but Avatar should take out more awards... Personally, I will be seeing Avatar."

again, clearly a geek vote for Avatar.

David Bockes: a vote for New Moon. although his "rash assessment" comment makes me think he isn't totally decided. he wants to see the movies and then decide for real.

Brian Miller: "It's going to be Twilight: New Moon by a landslide. Which is unfortunate."

key words there, "which is unfortunate". another geek vote for Avatar.

Betsy agrees that New Moon will gross more, but again this does not seem to be part of the debate, so she hasn't actually cast a vote.

David Jones: "I personally hope Avatar will do better at the theater"

clearly a geek vote for Avatar

Kathy Brown: "I would go see Avatar WAY before I would see New Moon." ...nuff said.

Peter Presnell votes but then states he has a clear conflict of interest. i say his vote is OUT.

Keith Brooks: he seems a little wishy washy but "Cameron wins" are the key words. Avatar wins another geek.

Avatar votes thus far by my count: Adam Slagle, Ian Randall, Brian Miller, David Jones, Kathy Brown, Keith Brooks, and me and of course Andrew. So that's 8 votes.

New Moon votes: Rock and David Bockes, 2 votes.

1 vote that didn't actually vote (Betsy) and 1 thrown out.

8 to 2 in favor of Avatar. Emoticon

Posted by John Vaughan At 03:00:55 PM On 11/18/2009 | - Website - |

19 - John Vaughan -- you are THE MAN.

Posted by Andrew Pollack At 08:08:46 PM On 11/18/2009 | - Website - |

20 - I think that New Moon will make more money, but Avatar will be the Geek choice.

Posted by Peter von Stöckel At 04:59:39 AM On 11/19/2009 | - Website - |

21 - The early numbers are in and New Moon set a record for all time opening day box office sales in US/Canada beating The Dark Night. The people have spoken!!! Avatar has a challenge in front when it is released next month.
ps: I'd like to think New Moon would never had done it without the recent migration by Summit Entertainment to 8.5.1!

Posted by Peter Presnell At 12:31:27 PM On 11/21/2009 | - Website - |

22 - New Moon was MUCH better than Twilight. The first 30ish minutes were rather terrible, like most all of Twilight, but the rest of the movie was rather good.

Majority of people in the theater were females. The 2 rows ahead of me had 2 males in each row. My row had myself and another. The two rows behind me had 2 in one, 3 in the other. Each row sat 14 people. If that ratio held, that means it was just over 84% female, which appears to be higher compared to all the different reports. { Link }

Posted by David Jones At 10:43:35 AM On 11/23/2009 | - Website - |